Articles and Chapters
2022. Causal Inference and Knowledge Accumulation in Historical Political Economy (draft). To appear in the Oxford Handbook of Historical Political Economy, edited by Jeff Jenkins and Jared Rubin (with Anna Callis and Guadalupe Tuñón).
2022. Knowledge Accumulation Through Natural Experiments (draft). To appear in the Oxford Handbook of Methodological Pluralism, edited by Janet Box-Steffensmeier, Dino Christenson, and Valeria Sinclair-Chapman (with Anna Callis and Guadalupe Tuñón).
2021. Brokering Inclusion: Intermediaries, Clientelism, and Constraints on Latin America’s Left Turn. In Diana Kapiszewski, Steven Levitsky, and Deborah Yashar, eds., The Inclusionary Turn in Latin American Democracies, Cambridge University Press (with Lucas M. Novaes)
2020. Instrumental Variables: From Structural Equation Models to Design-based Causal Inference. In Luigi Curini and Robert J. Franzese, eds., SAGE Handbook of Research Methods in Political Science & International Relations. Sage Press (with Christopher Carter).
2019. Decentralization and Ethnic Diversity. In Jonathan Rodden and Erik Wibbles, eds., Decentralized Governance and Accountability: Academic Research and the Future of Donor Programming. Cambridge University Press.
2019. Voter Information Campaigns and Political Accountability: Cumulative Findings from a Preregistered Meta-Analysis of Coordinated Trials. Science Advances 5 (7). (Lead author; with Guy Grossman, Macartan Humphreys, Susan Hyde, Craig McIntosh, Gareth Nellis, Claire L. Adida, Eric Arias, Clara Bicalho, Taylor C. Boas,8 Mark T. Buntaine, Simon Chauchard, Anirvan Chowdhury, Jessica Gottlieb, F. Daniel Hidalgo, Marcus Holmlund, Ryan Jablonski, Eric Kramon, Horacio Larreguy, Malte Lierl, John Marshall, Gwyneth McClendon, Marcus A. Melo, Daniel L. Nielson, Paula M. Pickering, Melina R. Platas, Pablo Querubín, Pia Raffler, and Neelanjan Sircar).
2019. Information, Accountability, and Cumulative Learning: Lessons from Metaketa I. 2019. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge Studies in Comparative Politics (with Guy Grossman, Macartan Humphreys, Susan Hyde, Craig McIntosh, and Gareth Nellis, Eds.).
Winner of the Best Book Award, Experimental Research Section of the American Political Science Association (2020)
2017. Contingency and Determinism in Research on Critical Junctures:
Avoiding the “Inevitability Framework.” Qualitative and Multimethod Research, Spring 2017: 41-47. For all the contributions to this symposium on critical junctures, see here.
2017. Race, Resources, and Representation: Evidence from Brazilian Politicians. Forthcoming (April 2017), World Politics (69) 2: 327-65 (with Natália S. Bueno).
2016. What Experiments Can and Cannot Achieve in Political Science. Annual Review of Political Science.
2016. Transparency and Reproducibility in Multi-Method Research. Revista de Ciencia Política 36 (3): 773-83 (with Fernando Rosenblatt).
2016. Transparency, Replication, and Cumulative Learning: What Experiments Alone Cannot Achieve. Annual Review of Political Science 19: 541-63.
2013. Ethnic Quotas and Political Mobilization: Caste, Parties, and Distribution in Indian Village Councils. American Political Science Review. 107 (1): 35-56. Background materials are here and Online Appendix is here.
2011. Fighting and Voting: Violent Conflict and Electoral Politics. Introduction to a special issue of Journal of Conflict Resolution, 55 (3): 327 – 339.
2010. Design-Based Inference: Beyond the Pitfalls of Regression Analysis? In David Collier and Henry Brady, eds., Rethinking Social Inquiry: Diverse Tools, Shared Standards. Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield, 2nd edition.
2010. Cross-Cutting Cleavages and Ethnic Voting: An Experimental Study of Cousinage in Mali. American Political Science Review 104 (1): 21-39 (with Lauren Harrison). Background and replication materials are here.
2010. Endogenous Oil Rents. Comparative Political Studies 43 (4). A supplementary figure showing the Venezuelan state’s take of net oil income is here.
2009. Direct Action and Associational Participation: The Problem-Solving Repertoires of Individuals. 2009. In Ruth Berins Collier and Samuel P. Handlin, eds., Reorganizing Popular Politics: Participation and the New Interest Regime in Latin America Penn State University Press.
2008. Model Specification in Instrumental-Variables Regression. Political Analysis 16 (3): 290-302. Online version published as doi:10.1093/pan/mpm039 (February 10, 2008). The preprint version is also available here; simulations discussed in the article are here. Stata code for the simulations is in a rich-text format file here.
2008. Improving Causal Inference: Strengths and Limitations of Natural Experiments. Political Research Quarterly 61 (2): 282-293. Online version is also available here (October 3, 2007).
2007. Modeling Selection Effects. In William Outhwaite and Stephen P. Turner, eds., The SAGE Handbook of Social Science Methodology. London: Sage Publications (with David Freedman).
2005. Resource Dependence, Economic Performance and Political Stability. Journal of Conflict Resolution, Volume 49, Number 4: 451-482.
2005. Classic Questions, New Contexts: Development in an Era of Bits and Bytes. Introduction to Taylor Boas and Thad Dunning, eds., special issue of Studies in Comparative International Development, 40 (2) (with Taylor Boas). Click here to see the full special issue.
2005. Will the Digital Revolution Revolutionize Development? Drawing Together the Debate. Conclusion to Taylor Boas and Thad Dunning, eds., special issue of Studies in Comparative International Development, 40 (2) (with Taylor Boas and Jennifer Bussell). Click here to see the full special issue.
2004. Conditioning the Effects of Aid: Cold War Politics, Donor Credibility, and Democracy in Africa. International Organization, 58 (2), Spring 2004. Replication data are available as text and .csv files.
2004. Oil and the Political Economy of Conflict in Colombia and Beyond: A linkages approach. Geopolitics, 9 (1) (with Leslie Wirpsa).
2004. Transplants to Hybrids: Exploring Institutional Pathways to Growth. Introduction to Thad Dunning and Grigore Pop-Eleches, eds., “Institutions for Economic Development: A Cross-Disciplinary Approach,” a special issue of Studies in Comparative International Development, 38 (4) (with Grigore Pop-Eleches). Click here to see the full special issue.