Thad Dunning
Robson Professor of Political Science
University of California, Berkeley
EDUCATION
Ph.D. University of California, Berkeley, Political Science, 2006.
M.A. University of California, Berkeley, Economics, 2006.
M.A. University of California, Berkeley, Political Science, 2002.
M.A. Stanford University, Latin American Studies, 2000.
B.A. Brown University (with highest honors), 1996.
ACADEMIC EMPLOYMENT
University of California, Berkeley (7/2013-present)
Robson Professor of Political Science
Faculty Director, Center on the Politics of Development (CPD)
Director of Graduate Affairs, Political Science (July 2014-July 2017)
Yale University (7/2006-6/2013)
Professor of Political Science (with tenure, 2/2013-6/2013)
Associate Professor of Political Science (with tenure, 7/2010-2/2012)
Associate Professor of Political Science (without tenure, 7/2009-6/2010)
Assistant Professor of Political Science (7/2006-6/2009)
Co-Director, Leitner Program in International and Comparative
Political Economy (7/2012-present)
Affiliated Faculty, Institution for Social and Policy Studies
Research Fellow, MacMillan Center for International and Area Studies
Director of Undergraduate Studies, International Studies (2007-2008)
PUBLISHED AND FORTHCOMING RESEARCH
Books:
2019. Metaketa I: Information, Accountability, and Cumulative Learning. Cambridge University Press (with Guy Grossman, Macartan Humphreys, Susan Hyde, and Craig McIntosh).
2013. Brokers, Voters, and Clientelism: The Puzzle of Distributive Politics. Cambridge University Press (with Susan Stokes, Marcelo Nazareno, and Valeria Brusco).
Winner of the Luebbert Book Award for best book in comparative politics, American Political Science Association (2014); Winner of the Best Book award from APSA’s Comparative Democratization section.
2012. Natural Experiments in the Social Sciences: A Design-Based Approach. Cambridge University Press.
Winner of the Best Book Award from the Experimental Research Section of the American Political Science Association (2013)
2008. Crude Democracy: Natural Resource Wealth and Political Regimes. Cambridge University Press.
Winner of the Best Book Award, APSA’s Comparative Democratization Section (2009); Gaddis Smith Prize, for the best first book on an international subject by a Yale faculty member (2009); Mancur Olson Award for the best dissertation in previous two years (APSA’s Political Economy Section, 2008).
Journal Articles and Volume Chapters:
2019. “Voter Information Campaigns and Political Accountability: Cumulative Findings from a Preregistered Meta-Analysis of Coordinated Trials.” Accepted at Science Advances subject to technical hold. (Lead author; with Guy Grossman, Macartan Humphreys, Susan Hyde, Craig McIntosh, Gareth Nellis, Claire L. Adida, Eric Arias, Clara Bicalho, Taylor C. Boas,8 Mark T. Buntaine, Simon Chauchard, Anirvan Chowdhury, Jessica Gottlieb, F. Daniel Hidalgo, Marcus Holmlund, Ryan Jablonski, Eric Kramon, Horacio Larreguy, Malte Lierl, John Marshall, Gwyneth McClendon, Marcus A. Melo, Daniel L. Nielson, Paula M. Pickering, Melina R. Platas, Pablo Querubín, Pia Raffler, and Neelanjan Sircar).
2019. “Do Informational Campaigns Promote Electoral Accountability?” Forthcoming. In Thad Dunning, Guy Grossman, Macartan Humphreys, Susan Hyde, Craig McIntosh, and Gareth Nellis, eds., Information, Accountability, and Cumulative Learning: Lessons from Metaketa I. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge Studies in Comparative Politics (lead chapter author, co-authored with Guy Grossman, Macartan Humphreys, Susan Hyde, Craig McIntosh, and Gareth Nellis).
2019. “The Metaketa Initiative.” Forthcoming. In Thad Dunning, Guy Grossman, Macartan Humphreys, Susan Hyde, Craig McIntosh, and Gareth Nellis, eds., Information, Accountability, and Cumulative Learning: Lessons from Metaketa I. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge Studies in Comparative Politics (lead chapter author, co-authored with Guy Grossman, Macartan Humphreys, Susan Hyde, and Craig McIntosh).
2019. “Informational Interventions: Theory and Measurement.” Forthcoming. In Thad Dunning, Guy Grossman, Macartan Humphreys, Susan Hyde, Craig McIntosh, and Gareth Nellis, eds., Information, Accountability, and Cumulative Learning: Lessons from Metaketa I. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge Studies in Comparative Politics (lead chapter author, co-authored with Guy Grossman, Macartan Humphreys, Susan Hyde, and Craig McIntosh).
2019. “Meta-Analysis.” Forthcoming. In Thad Dunning, Guy Grossman, Macartan Humphreys, Susan Hyde, Craig McIntosh, and Gareth Nellis, eds., Information, Accountability, and Cumulative Learning: Lessons from Metaketa I. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge Studies in Comparative Politics (lead chapter author, co-authored with Clara Bicalho, Anirvan Chowdhury, Guy Grossman, Macartan Humphreys, Susan Hyde, Craig McIntosh, and Gareth Nellis).
2019. “Learning About Cumulative Learning: An Experiment with Policy Practitioners.” Forthcoming. In Thad Dunning, Guy Grossman, Macartan Humphreys, Susan Hyde, Craig McIntosh, and Gareth Nellis, eds., Information, Accountability, and Cumulative Learning: Lessons from Metaketa I. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge Studies in Comparative Politics (co-authored with Guy Grossman, Macartan Humphreys, Susan Hyde, Craig McIntosh, Gareth Nellis, and Catlan Reardon).
2019. “Challenges and Opportunities.” Forthcoming. In Thad Dunning, Guy Grossman, Macartan Humphreys, Susan Hyde, Craig McIntosh, and Gareth Nellis, eds., Information, Accountability, and Cumulative Learning: Lessons from Metaketa I. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge Studies in Comparative Politics (lead chapter author, co-authored with Guy Grossman, Macartan Humphreys, Susan Hyde, Craig McIntosh, and Gareth Nellis).
2019. Decentralization and Ethnic Diversity. In Jonathan Rodden and Erik Wibbles, eds., Decentralization and Development in Practice: Assessing the Evidence. Cambridge University Press.
2017. Contingency and Determinism in Research on Critical Junctures:
Avoiding the “Inevitability Framework.” Qualitative and Multimethod Research, Spring 2017: 41-47.
2017. Race, Resources, and Representation: Evidence from Brazilian Politicians. Forthcoming (April 2017), World Politics (69) 2: 327-65 (with Natália S. Bueno).
2016. Transparency and Reproducibility in Multi-Method Research. Revista de Ciencia Política 36 (3): 773-83 (with Fernando Rosenblatt).
2016. Transparency, Replication, and Cumulative Learning: What Experiments Alone Cannot Achieve. Annual Review of Political Science 19: 541-63.
2014. Improving Process Tracing: The Case of Multi-Method Research (pre-proof version). In Andrew Bennett and Jeffrey Checkel, eds., Process Tracing in the Social Sciences: From Metaphor to Analytic Tool. Cambridge University Press.
2013. Ethnic Quotas and Political Mobilization: Caste, Parties, and Distribution in Indian Village Councils. American Political Science Review 107 (1): 35-56 (with Janhavi Nilekani).
2012. Natural and Field Experiments in the Study of Latin American Politics. In Peter Kingstone and Deborah Yashar, eds., Routledge Handbook of Latin American Politics. Routledge (Taylor & Francis).
2011. Fighting and Voting: Violent Conflict and Electoral Politics. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 55 (3): 327 – 339.
2011. Does Blocking Reduce Attrition Bias? Newsletter of the Experimental Section of the American Political Science Association, May 2011.
2011. Natural Experiments. In Bertrand Badie, Dirk Berg-Schlosser, Leonardo Morlino, eds., International Encyclopedia of Political Science. Sage.
2011. Instrumental Variables. In Bertrand Badie, Dirk Berg-Schlosser, Leonardo Morlino, eds., International Encyclopedia of Political Science. Sage.
2010. Cross-Cutting Cleavages and Ethnic Voting: An Experimental Study of Cousinage in Mali. American Political Science Review 104 (1): 21-39 (with Lauren Harrison).
Runner-Up—Best Published Paper on African Politics, African Politics Conference Group of APSA/MPSA/ISA/ASA
2010. Endogenous Oil Rents. Comparative Political Studies 43 (4).
2010. Design-Based Inference: Beyond the Pitfalls of Regression Analysis?In David Collier and Henry Brady, eds., Rethinking Social Inquiry: Diverse Tools, Shared Standards. Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield, 2nd edition.
2009. Direct Action and Associational Participation: The Problem-Solving Repertoires of Individuals. 2009. In Ruth Berins Collier and Samuel P. Handlin, eds., Reorganizing Popular Politics: Participation and the New Interest Regime in Latin America Penn State University Press.
2008. Natural and Field Experiments: The Role of Qualitative Methods. Qualitative Methods 6 (2) (Newsletter of the American Political Science Association’s Organized Section on Qualitative Methods).
2008. Model Specification in Instrumental-Variables Regression. Political Analysis 16 (3): 290-302.
2008. Improving Causal Inference: Strengths and Limitations of Natural Experiments. Political Research Quarterly 61 (2): 282-293.
2007. Modeling Selection Effects. In William Outhwaite and Stephen P. Turner, eds., The SAGE Handbook of Social Science Methodology. London: Sage Publications (with David Freedman).
2007. The Role of Iteration in Multi-Method Research. Qualitative Methods (Newsletter of the American Political Science Association’s Organized Section on Qualitative Methods), 5 (1).
2005. Resource Dependence, Economic Performance and Political Stability. The Journal of Conflict Resolution, 49 (4): 451-482.
2005. Classic Questions, New Contexts: Development in an Era of Bits and Bytes. Introduction to Taylor Boas and Thad Dunning, eds., special issue of Studies in Comparative International Development, 40 (2) (with Taylor Boas).
2005. Will the Digital Revolution Revolutionize Development? Drawing Together the Debate. Conclusion to Taylor Boas and Thad Dunning, eds., special issue of Studies in Comparative International Development, 40 (2) (with Taylor Boas and Jennifer Bussell).
2004. Conditioning the Effects of Aid: Cold War Politics, Donor Credibility, and Democracy in Africa. International Organization, 58 (2), Spring 2004.
2004. Oil and the Political Economy of Conflict in Colombia and Beyond: A linkages approach. Geopolitics, 9 (1) (with Leslie Wirpsa).
2004. Transplants to Hybrids: Exploring Institutional Pathways to Growth. Introduction to Thad Dunning and Grigore Pop-Eleches, eds., “Institutions for Economic Development: A Cross-Disciplinary Approach,” a special issue of Studies in Comparative International Development, 38 (4) (with Grigore Pop-Eleches).
Reviews and Reports:
2010. Review of James Habyarimana, Macartan Humphreys, Daniel N. Posner, and Jeremy M. Weinstein, Coethnicity: Diversity and the Dilemmas of Collective Action. Forthcoming, Political Science Quarterly.
2010.Review of Jared Diamond and James Robinson, eds., Natural Experiments of History. Perspectives on Politics.
2009. Comment on Daniel Lederman and William Maloney, “In Search of the Missing Resource Curse.” 2009. Economia 9 (1).
2008. Review of John Gerring, Case Study Research: Principles and Practices, Cambridge University Press. 2008. In The Journal of Politics, 70 (1): 282-83.
2007. Report to a committee of the National Academy of Sciences on improving USAID program evaluation: Field memos from Peru. . The committee’s full report is available online here.
Working and Resting Papers:
2017. Is Paying Taxes Habit Forming? Theory and Evidence from Uruguay. Working paper (with Felipe Monestier, Rafael Piñeiro, Fernando Rosenblatt, and Guadalupe Tuñón).
2010. The Salience of Ethnic Categories: Field and Natural Experimental Evidence from Indian Village Councils. Working paper, Department of Political Science, Yale University.
2008. The Analysis of Experimental Data: Comparing Techniques. Working paper (with Susan Hyde). Presented at the annual meetings of the American Political Science Association, Boston, MA, August 29-September 1, 2008.
2004. Creating Social Facts: Alternative Approaches to Autonomous Action and Political Change. Paper presented at the annual meetings of the American Political Science Association, Chicago, Illinois, September 2-5, 2004.
FELLOWSHIPS AND AWARDS
Funding for “Engendering Compliance: Evaluating and Improving a Randomized Tax Holiday Policy in Uruguay” (2014), J-PAL Governance Initiative (with Felipe Monestier, Rafael Piñeiro, Fernando Rosenblatt, and Guadalupe Tuñón)
Principal Investigator for EGAP Regranting Initiative (2013-2017), Center on the Politics of Development, UC Berkeley (anonymous donor).
Luebbert Book Award (2014), for Brokers, Voters, and Clientelism. Comparative Politics Section of the American Political Science Association.
Runner-Up, Award for Best Paper Published on African Politics in 2010, African Politics Conference Group of the APSA/MPSA/ISA/ASA (with Lauren Harrison)
Honorable Mention, Best Paper Award for paper presented at the previous APSA meetings, Comparative Democratization Section (with Susan Stokes) (2011)
Best Book Award (2009). Comparative Democratization Section of the American Political Science Association (for Crude Democracy).
Gaddis Smith International Book Prize (2009). Awarded by the MacMillan Center for the best first book on an international topic by a member of the Yale faculty (for Crude Democracy).
Mancur Olson Award (2008). Given by the Political Economy Section of APSA for the best dissertation in political economy, for a Ph.D. completed in the previous two years.
Peter Odegard Memorial Award (2005). Given annually to three graduate students in Political Science at UC Berkeley who are judged to display outstanding scholarly promise.
Allan Sharlin Memorial Fellowship, Institute of International Studies, UC Berkeley (2004-2005).
Reinhard Bendix Memorial Research Fellowship, Institute of International Studies, UC Berkeley (2004-2005)
John L. Simpson Memorial Research Fellowship, Institute of International Studies, UC Berkeley (2004-2005)
Political Science Training Fellowship in Formal Modeling, UC Berkeley (2002-2003)
Chancellor’s Research Grant, UC Berkeley (Summer 2003)
Political Science Departmental Fellowship, UC Berkeley (2001-02)
Foreign Language and Areas Studies (FLAS) fellowship to study Portuguese, Stanford University (1999-2000).
TEACHING
Yale University, Department of Political Science
Graduate teaching
Research & Writing (Fall 2012)
Causal Inference and Research Design (Spring 2012)
Comparative Politics I: Research Design (Fall 2011)
Quantitative Methods: Linear Regression Model and Extensions (Spring 2010, Spring 2012)
Formal Models of Comparative Politics (Fall 2009, Spring 2007, Spring 2012)
Researching Ethnic Politics (Spring 2007)
Undergraduate teaching
Cause and Effect: Research Methods in the Social Sciences (Fall 2012)
Democracy and Development (Fall 2008)
Senior Seminar in International Studies (Spring 2007-Fall 2008)
Researching Ethnic Politics (Spring 2007)
Ethnic Politics in Comparative Perspective (Fall 2006)
UC Berkeley, Department of Political Science
Undergraduate teaching
Method in Comparative Analysis (Spring 2004). Graduate Student Instructor for Professor David Collier. Received the “Outstanding Graduate Student Instructor Award,” given to approximately 10 percent of Graduate Student Instructors at Berkeley.
UC Berkeley, Department of Statistics,
Undergraduate teaching
Linear Modeling: Theory and Applications (Fall 2004). Graduate Student Instructor for Professor David Freedman. Nominated by Statistics Department for the “Outstanding Graduate Student Instructor Award.”
Statistical Inferences for the Social and Life Sciences (Fall 2003). Graduate Student Instructor for Professor David Freedman.
Additional teaching
American Political Science Association (APSA). Taught short courses on natural experiments and research design at the 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, and 2009 annual meetings of APSA.
Institute on Qualitative and Multi-Method Research, Arizona State University and Maxwell School of Syracuse University. Faculty member; lectured on natural experiments, multi-method research, and other topics (January 2005, 2007, 2008, and June 2009).
USAID Democracy and Governance Officers Workshop. Taught workshop on impact evaluation methods to 75 Democracy and Governance officers at USAID (June 9-10, 2008, co-taught with Devra Moehler).
Brown Summer Institute on Development and Inequality (BIARI) Lectured on natural experiments and multi-method research (June 2009).
Hydrocarbon Executive Education Program, International Center on Energy and the Environment, IESA, Caracas, Venezuela. Lectured on the politics of natural resource wealth (August 2005).
PROFESSIONAL SERVICE AND OTHER EXPERIENCE
Journal Referee
American Economic Review, American Political Science Review, American Journal of Political Science, International Organization, The Journal of Conflict Resolution, Journal of Politics, Political Psychology, Political Research Quarterly, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Studies in Comparative International Development
Visiting Researcher
Institute for Quantitative Social Science (IQSS), Harvard University (Fall 2009).
Center for Energy and Environmental Studies, Instituto de Estudios Superiores de Administracion (IESA), Caracas, Venezuela. (April-August 2005).
Advisor/Consultant
USAID Outcome Lead Expert for Impact Evaluation, sharing knowledge about rigorous research tools with a leading implementer of governance and international development programs (May 2012-present)
Assisted a committee of the National Academy of Sciences with recommendations on improving USAID program evaluation; methodological consultant on a visit to Peru (June 2007).
Assisted in the selection of municipalities for USAID decentralization programming in Albania, with randomized assignment of treatment and control municipalities (2008).
Wrote chapter on impact evaluation for a USAID/ARD handbook on decentralization programming.
Assisted Morrison & Foerster and Terry Karl (Stanford) with preparation of testimony for two cases in which Salvadoran generals were found liable for human rights abuses (2000-2002).
Committee and Editorial Board Membership
Nominating Committee, Qualitative and Multi-Methods Section, APSA (2010).
Best Book Award Committee, Comparative Democratization Section, APSA (2010).
Alex George Prize Committee, Qualitative and Multi-Methods Section, APSA (2008).
Editorial Board, Comparative Political Economy eJournal, Political Science Network (PSN) of the Social Science Research Network (SSRN)
Other Memberships
Experiments in Governance and Politics (EGAP) network.
Editorial Assistant
Studies in Comparative International Development (SCID), UC Berkeley (2002-2005).
Coordinator
Positive Political Theory Seminar, Institute for Government Studies, UC Berkeley (2002-03).
ADDITIONAL EDUCATION
Empirical Implications of Theoretical Models (EITM), University of California, Berkeley (June-July 2005). An NSF-funded project designed to promote the integration of theoretical models and empirical research in political science.
Institute on Qualitative Research Methods (IQRM), Arizona State University (January 2004). A project of the Consortium on Qualitative Research Methods designed to improve qualitative research in political science.
Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research (ICPSR)
University of Michigan (Summer 2002). Summer program on statistical methods.
LANGUAGES
Fluent, research-level French, Spanish, and Portuguese. Some Mandarin Chinese.
PRESENTATIONS
University of California, Berkeley, Political Science Department, May 2, 2012
University of British Columbia, Experiments in Development Workshop, March 19, 2012
Columbia University, Political Economy Seminar, December 5, 2011
Harvard University, Ruling Politics Conference, November 21, 2011
Merton College, Univ. of Oxford, Redistributive Pref. Workshop, April 15, 2011
University College, Univ. of Oxford, Pol. Economy Seminar, January 20, 2011
London School of Economics, Pol. Economy Seminar, January 18, 2011
University of Essex, Political Economy Seminary, January 17, 2011
Indian Institute of Management-Bangalore/U. of Pittsburgh, January 5, 2011
UT Austin, Comparative Politics Workshop, October 27, 2010
Columbia, CSDS Development Seminar, October 22, 2010
UT Austin, LBJ School, Ph.D. Colloquium, October 14, 2010
Latin American Studies Association, Toronto, Canada, October 8, 2010
University of Michigan, Comparative Politics Workshop, October 1, 2010
American Political Science Association, Washington D.C., Sept. 4, 2010
UCSD, African Politics Seminar, May 18, 2010
UCLA, Comparative Politics Workshop, May 17, 2010
New York University, CAPERS African Political Economy conference, May 13, 2010
Dartmouth, Comparative Democracy Series, April 29, 2010
Georgetown University, Comparative Politics Workshop, April 9, 2010
Harvard-MIT-Brown Seminar on South Asian Politics, April 8, 2010
Princeton, Department of Politics, March 24, 2010
Princeton, Center for the Study of Democratic Politics, Dec. 3, 2009
Kellogg Institute, University of Notre Dame, October 1, 2009
University of British Colombia, Political Science, Sept. 28, 2009
American Political Science Association, Toronto, Canada, August 28-31, 2009
Sociedad Argentina de Analisis Politico, Santa Fe, Argentina, August 20, 2009
Yale, Political Methodology Society meetings, July 23-25, 2009
Yale, “Fighting and Voting” conference, May 14-15, 2009 (organizer)
Yale, Experiments in Governance and Politics (EGAP) meetings, April 23-24
Princeton, Faculty Colloquium in Comparative Politics, April 30, 2009
Washington University in St. Louis, Political Economy Workshop, Dec. 5, 2008
Stanford, Comparative Politics Workshop, November 10, 2008
MIT, October 31, 2008
American Political Science Association meetings, August 2008
Yale University, Economía meetings (discussant), May 3, 2008
Duke, Methodological Advances in Comparative Politics, April 11-12, 2008
Columbia, Comparative Politics Workshop, April 9, 2008
Yale, Conference on Venezuela, November 30, 2007
The University of Chicago, Comparative Politics Workshop, November 1, 2007
University of Rochester, Wallis Institute of Political Economy, October 25, 2007
Latin American Studies Association meetings, September 2007
American Political Science Association meetings, August-September 2007
Stanford, Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law, May 11, 2007
Stanford, Comparative Politics Workshop, May 7, 2007
Yale, Council on Latin American Studies, April 26, 2007
Harvard, Rockefeller Center for Latin American Studies, April 10, 2007
Brown, Colloquium on Comparative Research, March 7, 2007
Yale, Comparative Politics Workshop, February 27, 2007
American Political Science Association meetings, August 2006
American Political Science Association meetings, September 2005
Instituto de Estudios Superiores de Administracion, Caracas, Venezuela, June 2005
American Political Science Association meetings, September 2004
Conference on Natural Resources and War, McGill University, September 2003.
Conference settlement of civil conflicts, Santa Fe Institute, Bogota, Colombia, May 2003
UC Davis, Hemispheric Institute on the Americas, October 2001
International Political Science Association meetings, Durban, South Africa, June 2003
International Studies Association meetings, New Orleans, Louisiana, April 2002
Latin American Studies Association meetings, Washington, D.C., September, 2001
American Political Science Association annual meetings, Chicago, Illinois, September 2-5, 2004.